Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 11.721459 13.424119 15.258596 17.378463 19.756895 22.339298 25.351563
2025-06-15 9.202479 11.507257 14.184109 17.508204 21.509524 26.154185 31.936046
2025-06-22 8.097857 10.708770 13.888404 18.017782 23.207741 29.480845 37.599539
2025-06-29 6.943400 9.668682 13.135026 17.823546 23.949194 31.624447 41.904258
2025-07-06 5.808188 8.479473 12.014221 16.973769 23.681835 32.358854 44.335768
2025-07-13 5.329675 8.104119 11.901829 17.398809 25.053839 35.222962 49.614978
2025-07-20 4.899358 7.738180 11.748145 17.721308 26.264510 37.891591 54.723364
2025-07-27 4.422338 7.248153 11.363366 17.665115 26.911482 39.788641 58.833158
2025-08-03 3.969911 6.744651 10.906328 17.450563 27.289489 41.294257 62.428643
2025-08-10 3.631726 6.381921 10.622050 17.456106 27.964607 43.225459 66.684346
2025-08-17 3.371112 6.115838 10.458642 17.621422 28.868243 45.507126 71.522768
2025-08-24 3.098810 5.802594 10.191655 17.596676 29.464176 47.341159 75.756929
2025-08-31 2.816476 5.451128 9.843452 17.429690 29.846117 48.898807 79.696262
2025-09-07 2.620350 5.231526 9.694621 17.573050 30.721309 51.243416 84.931349
2025-09-14 2.507123 5.148614 9.766475 18.079620 32.197419 54.569833 91.801457
2025-09-21 2.290009 4.851632 9.442426 17.886386 32.501564 56.047008 95.815568
2025-09-28 1.996836 4.379441 8.768171 17.033407 31.639685 55.596635 96.715424
2025-10-05 1.913480 4.309694 8.817132 17.459961 32.975949 58.771733 103.584635
2025-10-12 1.822387 4.215207 8.811481 17.783404 34.142944 61.706217 110.161145
2025-10-19 1.691033 4.024551 8.608252 17.727058 34.630749 63.514170 114.927352
2025-10-26 1.552705 3.805041 8.331483 17.511828 34.815919 64.805849 118.862556
2025-11-02 1.450708 3.653975 8.177292 17.517390 35.396702 66.791687 124.037813
2025-11-09 1.373349 3.549968 8.109233 17.683223 36.276518 69.325158 130.235352